Preseason Rankings
Oregon St.
Pac-12
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#74
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.1#280
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#64
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#102
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.2% 2.4% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 4.7% 5.2% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.5% 24.5% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.1% 19.8% 5.5%
Average Seed 8.8 8.8 9.3
.500 or above 73.6% 76.9% 48.9%
.500 or above in Conference 53.7% 56.0% 36.4%
Conference Champion 5.8% 6.2% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 5.4% 11.5%
First Four5.0% 5.5% 1.8%
First Round20.0% 21.7% 7.1%
Second Round9.6% 10.5% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.4% 3.7% 1.1%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.3% 0.4%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Home) - 88.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 6
Quad 24 - 46 - 10
Quad 36 - 211 - 13
Quad 48 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 208   Cal St. Northridge W 83-70 88%    
  Nov 09, 2019 35   Iowa St. L 72-73 44%    
  Nov 12, 2019 38   Oklahoma L 70-74 36%    
  Nov 16, 2019 275   @ Wyoming W 75-65 82%    
  Nov 20, 2019 160   UC Santa Barbara W 73-63 81%    
  Nov 23, 2019 269   Grambling St. W 80-64 92%    
  Nov 27, 2019 330   San Jose St. W 81-63 94%    
  Dec 01, 2019 270   Portland St. W 82-66 92%    
  Dec 14, 2019 343   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 78-54 98%    
  Dec 18, 2019 121   Texas San Antonio W 78-74 63%    
  Dec 21, 2019 61   @ Texas A&M L 68-73 33%    
  Dec 29, 2019 262   North Dakota W 80-65 91%    
  Jan 02, 2020 110   @ Utah W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 05, 2020 40   @ Colorado L 66-73 28%    
  Jan 09, 2020 65   Arizona St. W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 12, 2020 31   Arizona L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 16, 2020 44   @ Washington L 65-71 29%    
  Jan 18, 2020 157   @ Washington St. W 77-73 62%    
  Jan 23, 2020 82   UCLA W 79-75 61%    
  Jan 25, 2020 64   USC W 75-73 55%    
  Jan 30, 2020 113   @ Stanford W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 01, 2020 166   @ California W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 08, 2020 16   Oregon L 64-68 38%    
  Feb 13, 2020 110   Utah W 74-68 69%    
  Feb 15, 2020 40   Colorado L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 20, 2020 31   @ Arizona L 66-74 24%    
  Feb 22, 2020 65   @ Arizona St. L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 27, 2020 16   @ Oregon L 61-71 21%    
  Mar 05, 2020 113   Stanford W 74-68 69%    
  Mar 07, 2020 166   California W 74-64 80%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 5.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.5 1.8 0.5 0.1 6.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 8.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.8 2.7 0.3 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.1 2.9 0.5 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.6 3.0 0.5 0.0 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.7 2.6 0.7 0.0 9.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.0 2.4 0.5 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.4 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 4.9 6.5 8.7 10.1 11.3 11.6 11.0 9.9 7.8 5.6 3.7 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 95.1% 1.2    1.0 0.2 0.0
15-3 77.4% 1.7    1.1 0.6 0.1
14-4 38.2% 1.4    0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 12.5% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 57.4% 42.6% 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 99.9% 39.0% 60.9% 2.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-2 1.3% 99.4% 38.7% 60.7% 4.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
15-3 2.3% 97.2% 24.2% 73.0% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 96.3%
14-4 3.7% 90.9% 23.6% 67.3% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 88.1%
13-5 5.6% 76.9% 15.2% 61.7% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.3 72.7%
12-6 7.8% 52.1% 9.3% 42.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.7 47.1%
11-7 9.9% 34.7% 6.7% 28.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.0 6.4 30.1%
10-8 11.0% 19.5% 4.7% 14.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.9 15.5%
9-9 11.6% 7.4% 2.1% 5.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 10.7 5.4%
8-10 11.3% 2.4% 1.6% 0.9% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.0 0.9%
7-11 10.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.1%
6-12 8.7% 0.3% 0.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7
5-13 6.5% 0.2% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4
4-14 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 4.9
3-15 2.9% 0.3% 0.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 2.9
2-16 1.4% 1.4
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 22.5% 5.4% 17.1% 8.8 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.2 4.9 2.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 77.5 18.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.7 52.5 24.6 23.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 51.7 48.3